Brazil’s federal betting licences expired on 25 October, the same day the Superior Electoral Court confirmed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election to a fourth term. The result removes the political path operators had been counting on to reverse the country’s betting ban, leaving Congress and the Supreme Federal Court as the only remaining avenues back to a regulated market.
The outcome matters well beyond Brazilian borders. The country’s online betting market had drawn some of the biggest names in global iGaming before the ban, and its political direction will now shape whether, and how, that market can reopen.
What happened
Lula reached almost 52% of the vote against just over 48% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a margin of just over 4.3 million votes.
The Superior Electoral Court officially confirmed his re-election as president on Sunday.
The result confounded prediction markets, which had moved heavily against the incumbent in the run-up to polling day.
Polymarket had priced Bolsonaro’s chances at around 78% in the weeks before the runoff, but as counting progressed that position shifted sharply, and by around 9pm Brasilia time, with roughly 80% of votes reported, Lula’s probability of victory had risen to 99%.
The vote fell on the deadline set by Provisional Measure 1,394, the decree that triggered the current Brazil betting ban.
Lula signed the measure on 25 September, prohibiting the exploitation, offer, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds bets nationwide, including by operators based abroad offering wagers to people in Brazil.
Operators’ websites went offline on 6 October, and federal authorisations expired on 25 October, the same day as the vote.
The expiry carries no right to a refund of the licence fee or to compensation.
The regulated market had only opened in January 2025 after operators paid R$30 million for their licences, and those payments have not been refunded under the measure.
Two institutional battles now run in parallel.
The Supreme Federal Court must decide whether the provisional measure is constitutional, following actions filed by sector entities and football clubs, with rapporteur Justice Luiz Fux having promised a ruling once the election concluded.
Separately, MP 1,394 still requires congressional approval to remain in force, and lawmakers have already proposed more than 90 amendments.
Congress and the court are weighing the measure’s future while it remains in force in the meantime.
Why the Brazil betting ban matters for operators
Licensed operators that paid for market entry in 2025 are now sitting on invalid authorisations with no refund mechanism and no clear restart date.
The result disappointed betting companies that had expected a Bolsonaro victory could lead to changes to the measure, with industry representatives reportedly having been in contact with people close to his campaign about revising it.
That route has now closed.
The president does face a Congress in which the opposition has strengthened its position, which keeps some pressure on his administration.
But with the government that imposed the ban now re-mandated, analysts see little chance of a swift legislative reversal.
For affiliates and marketing partners that built traffic and revenue-share arrangements around Brazil’s brief regulated window, the practical effect is a continued freeze on commissions tied to licensed operators. Any audience-acquisition strategy built on Brazilian search or social traffic now needs to account for an extended period of legal uncertainty, with state-level licensing floated by some analysts as a possible alternative route back into the market well before any federal resolution.
The bigger picture
Brazil’s regulated betting market was one of the most closely watched launches in global iGaming, pairing a large, sports-mad population with formal licensing for the first time.
The Finance Ministry has previously estimated that Brazilian households spend around 60 billion reais annually on online betting, generating roughly 10 billion reais in tax revenue.
Those figures explain why the sector attracted so much international investment, and why its sudden suspension in September sent operators scrambling to adjust market plans.
Lula’s re-election now locks in the political will behind the ban for at least the medium term, even as Congress and the courts work through the legal mechanics of the Brazil betting ban’s future. The dispute sits alongside Stake’s separate fight over a court reversal, detailed in Tenstar Media’s earlier coverage of Brazil’s betting ban, underlining how fragmented the legal picture has become for operators trying to plan around the market.
Sources
- iGaming Business – Brazil betting ban battle enters new phase after Lula re-election
- NEXT.io – Brazil re-elects Lula, extending negative outlook for betting sector
- World Casino Directory – Lula Re-Election Keeps Brazil Betting Ban Government in Power
- Gaming.net – Lula Wins Fourth Term as Brazil Betting Ban Awaits Court and Congress
- Compliance+More – ‘Only chaos is certain’
- TokenPost – Brazil’s Betting Authorization Deadline Passes as Ban Faces Review
- NBC News – Brazil’s Lula bans online betting as re-election race tightens
- SBC News – Is Lula’s re-election the final nail in Brazil’s betting industry’s coffin?
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