Catena Media has abandoned its target of double-digit organic growth for 2026 after a weak third quarter in which group revenue fell 29% year-on-year. The Malta-headquartered gambling affiliate also flagged a non-cash impairment charge of between €30m and €35m on intangible assets, and its shares fell sharply in Stockholm following the announcement.
What happened
Catena Media published preliminary, unaudited results for the third quarter of 2026 late on Friday 16 October. The
publicly-listed gambling media group’s preliminary results for the quarter showed a 29% year-on-year drop in revenue from €11.6m to €8.3m.
Adjusted EBITDA fell by over 75%, from €2.9m to €0.7m, a figure that included a reversal of €0.7m of accruals originally set aside for the 2026 employee bonus programme.
For the first nine months of the year,
revenue was down 3% at €30.1m, with adjusted EBITDA declining 11.5% to €4.6m.
As a result, Catena Media no longer expects to hit its 2026 target of double-digit organic growth in group revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
The company also confirmed it expects to recognise a non-cash impairment charge on intangible assets of €30m to €35m in the quarter, in line with accounting standard IAS 36.
Chief executive Manuel Stan said the business had experienced
“a weak quarter” in which “the search landscape is undergoing a rapid and fundamental shift,” adding that as a predominantly CPA-based business, results reflected the effects of these changes “immediately and in full.”
He pointed to the company’s TraffiqX project and expansion into prediction markets as part of a
strategy to reduce dependence on search by diversifying revenue streams and by investing in customer loyalty programmes.
Catena Media identified several specific pressures behind the downturn.
Generative search continued to transform how users discover brands online, reducing new traffic across the affiliate industry.
The company’s traditional search rankings declined, due both to AI-assisted personalised search patterns and to search engines continuing to elevate lower-relevancy content in results, while certain operators also reduced their marketing budgets during the usual seasonal summer slowdown.
The group will confirm the figures in a full interim report on 10 November.
Why it matters
The results are a concrete illustration of how exposed CPA-driven affiliate businesses are to shifts in search behaviour.
Because Catena Media acquires more than 90% of new customers under cost-per-acquisition deals, the group has limited recurring revenue to buffer against this combination of market pressures.
That structural dependence means any disruption to organic traffic flows through almost immediately to the bottom line, with little cushion from subscription-style or retained revenue streams.
For operators that rely on affiliate partnerships for player acquisition, the figures are a warning sign about the reliability of search-driven traffic as a growth channel. If a large, established affiliate group is seeing its rankings slip due to AI-assisted personalisation and the promotion of lower-relevancy content, smaller affiliates and in-house SEO teams face the same headwinds. Operators may need to diversify acquisition partnerships further, leaning more on brand, loyalty and direct channels rather than treating organic search referrals as a dependable, scalable pipeline.
The bigger picture
Catena Media’s Q3 reversal follows what had looked like a tentative recovery. The company had posted a stronger Q3 a year earlier and had set an ambitious 2026 target of double-digit organic growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
The business has struggled significantly in recent years amid the rise of AI affecting search traffic and other factors, although it had enjoyed something of a recovery since the end of 2025.
This latest setback suggests that recovery has stalled, at least for now, and that the structural shift in search is proving more persistent than a temporary dip.
The episode sits alongside a broader pattern across the affiliate marketing segment of iGaming, where generative AI search tools are increasingly answering user queries directly rather than directing clicks to third-party comparison and review sites. Affiliate groups across the sector have been investing in loyalty programmes, proprietary data and new verticals such as prediction markets in response, mirroring the diversification path Catena Media’s leadership has outlined. How quickly these alternative revenue streams can offset the decline in traditional search-driven traffic will be a key theme for affiliate businesses and their operator partners heading into 2027.
For more on how regulatory and market shifts are reshaping operator strategy, visit our industry news section.
Sources
- SBC News – Catena shares tumble as firm goes back on 2026 expectations
- Gambling News – Catena Media Revises Guidance, Cites Weak Q3 for Performance Projections
- Gaming Intelligence – Catena Media expects third quarter revenue to decline 29%
- InterGame Online – Catena Media hit by ‘rapid and fundamental’ search changes
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